如果你看过这部经典电影 印第安纳琼斯:最后的十字军东征, you’ll recall the climactic scene where Indy needed to pass four tests in order to retrieve the Holy Grail. 犯错的余地很小，而且赌注很高. 只要走错一步，他就会在考试中失败，失去一切, including his head (as would have happened had he not knelt as the penitent man to pass the test).
When we make investments, we focus on the reward and balance it against the risk. 这四个测试, 就我而言, will allow us to get to the Holy Grail of wealth without losing our heads.
1. 现金回报率($/$)
现金回报 is a tool used to calculate the value of investment property based on your actual cash investment versus the income the property will generate.
现金回报 is expressed in a percentage that reflects the amount of income each year against the initial cash investment. This investment metric is calculated by taking your net income and dividing this by your initial investment to determine the percentage. Your initial investment will include the following start-up and acquisition costs:
- 首付
- Inspection, appraisal, and any other due diligence costs associated with the acquisition
- 维修及翻新费用总额
- 关闭成本
Your annual net rental income will include your total rental income less your annual recurring expenses—the result of which will tell you whether the investment will have a positive or negative cash flow:
- 房产税
- 维护成本
- 会员费
- 物业管理
- 抵押贷款
- 空置率
现金流量除以投入的现金等于现金收益. 如果你看到的是5%到10%, 你进入了状态, 一般来说, taking into consideration the specific property risk and current market. Watch this video to create yourself a simple Excel calculator to build your four-test worksheet.
2. 净现值(NPV)
净现值 is a metric used to calculate the present value of your net future cash flows from an investment property.
这个指标在确定投资收益时很有价值. It is based on whether anticipated future cash flows will present a value larger than what is required to invest in the property. 因此, allowing an investor to calculate a yield that can be compared to other potential properties and opportunities by the same measuring stick. 计算净现值, future cash flows are discounted by the desired rate of return and deducted from the initial capital invested. In order to calculate IRR, you will need to begin with the following:
- 总持有期(以年为单位)
- 每年产生的现金流量
- 折现收益率
- 初始现金投资
This calculation is used to tell us if the present value of future benefits is greater than or equal to the cost of those benefits, 这样就提供了你想要的回报率. 您将希望看到一个正数作为结果, 因为这将意味着投资超出你的预期.
3. 初始收益率(IRR)
内部收益率 is a key metric in the valuation of a potential investment used to show profitability by determining a discount rate that makes the net present value of all cash flows equal to zero.
It uses the same information need to calculate NPV to determine the initial rate of return with the NPV set to zero and solving for the desired discount rate. This tool will provide you with a projected rate of growth expected from the investment. 你希望在这个类别中看到一个正数, 一般来说, 内部收益率越高, 投资越好. This calculation is valuable in comparing multiple properties by creating a level playing field in which to do so.
对于内部收益率，没有一个神奇的数字. 在目前正在承销的大多数投资地产中, 内部收益率为10%或更低似乎更像是一个负面结果, while an IRR of 15% or more are generally found to be good investments.
4. 修正内部收益率(MIRR)
修正内部收益率 takes your desired investment goals into consideration with reference to the determined IRR and overall financial metrics contributed to that calculation.
Pre-investment will help you determine how much initial capital investment is needed and evaluate your rates of return on that initial amount. 在持有期间, your cash flow analysis will help you determine your returns during the life of the investment period. 最后, MIRR will help you determine your exit strategy by taking your projected sales price and returns and evaluating them against the returns of other investments, 不同的保持时间, 以及最初投资多少才能获得最佳的总体回报. MIRR is the big picture calculation that comes as a result of these metrics and gives you an overall snapshot on returns to make your final evaluation of the property. Here is another useful video to help you build your own custom investment input worksheet along with your cash on cash calculation.
有了新发现的知识, you’ll be able to assess potential investments to see if they pass each of these four tests as you evaluate both the short and long term performance of the investment. I strongly encourage you speak with a local property manager who has knowledge of the area to help determine the income to expense ratio so you can input accurate cash flows into your model. I would also never recommend a rent increase of more than 3% per year.
通过遵循以下指导, 你可以避免做出糟糕的选择, such as the one Marcus Brody made at the end of the movie when he was fooled by appearances and drank from the wrong cup. “他/她选错了”是可以避免的. To put it simply: Never invest in something simply because it is shiny.
